As part of my post-doc project on the external dimension of authoritarian resilience in Africa, I examine how extra-regional actors/factors influence the domestic politics and policies of autocratic regimes in Africa. This consists in comparing how various forms of engagement between external actors and African regimes affect specific components of African regimes’ authoritarian resilience and/or resurgence, focusing not only on the duration of local leaderships but also on the status of a set of political rights and civil liberties and the likelihood of autocratization attempts (coups and term limits violations).
Sanctions, primarily in Africa and by its regional organizations
In my PhD research I examined international sanctions and the domestic institutional constraints shaping sanctions effectiveness. Focusing on the African continent, I am now developing a new dataset (and related research) on sanctions in Africa, which includes measures imposed both by regional and extra-regional actors. Under this project, I am also going back to the original black-knights sanctions literature to reassess the effects of third parties’ sanction-busting activities in Africa.
The external dimension of regime support and legitimation
Any kind of political regime, whether democratic or autocratic, needs to legitimate its rule. This project focuses on external legitimation processes. It does so also by collecting original data on states’ diplomatic outreach – of which high-level diplomatic visits (involving HoSGs and MFAs) are the most visible and relevant part.
Previous projects
List
VERSUS ERC project on elite behaviour, leader survival, and conflicts in Africa
VERSUS was a research project of the University of Sussex (Principal Investigator: Prof. Clionadh Raleigh) supported by the European Research Council (September 2017-August 2022). VERSUS represents a new direction in political, geographic and empirical subnational studies of conflict and governance. It determines how violence erupts from political processes in varied environments and how common internal and external shocks create new trajectories of governance, violence, and potential for political resilience. My contribution mostly focused on the analysis of Ethiopia’s political competition and crises after the rise of Abiy Ahmed.
Political regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa
Research funded by the Department of Social and Political Science of the University of Milan (February-September 2020) on the evolution of political regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa (book project) and on relations between EU and Africa (policy paper), ahead of the sixth summit between the European Union and the African Union.
Atlante Geopolitico Treccani
Country profiles and analyses for the 2017, 2018, 2019 editions of the Atlante Geopolitico Treccani.
Publications
Journal articles
Corda, T., and Casiraghi, M. (2025). The party politics of diplomatic engagements: Evidence from Italy. Italian Political Science Review / Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, online first. DOI: 10.1017/ipo.2024.30 Abs
Leaders decide to engage diplomatically with their foreign peers for various reasons but, given their limited time and resources, they have to choose which peers to prioritize. As such, the study of international diplomatic visits helps shed light on a government’s foreign policy approach and better understand its priorities in how it conceives and builds foreign relations. While the literature on diplomatic engagements has largely debated its drivers and effects, the role of domestic influences, in particular of party politics, has remained understudied. We address this gap and investigate the party politics of diplomatic engagements leveraging a new dataset on Italy’s high-level international bilateral diplomatic visits in 2000–2023. Our findings show that partisan differences influence not only the overall frequency of such engagements, following curvilinear left–right patterns, but also the political regimes that left- and right-wing governments prioritize in such endeavours, exposing the lower importance right-wing parties assign to democratic principles when managing their countries’ foreign relations, as these governments are systematically more likely to interact with authoritarian regimes than with democracies. autocracy democracy diplomatic visits Italy political ideology
Corda, T. (2024). In-Group We Trust, No More? How Senders’ Legitimacy Shapes the Success of Sanctions-Based Democracy Promotion, Cooperation and Conflict, online first. DOI: 10.1177/00108367241298929 Abs
For decades, pro-democracy states and organizations have been using coercive measures such as sanctions to promote and uphold democratic governance worldwide, yet not always successfully. Recent research has improved our knowledge on such ‘democracy sanctions’, but our understanding of how the different identities of sanctioners shape their success is not complete yet. Focusing on Africa, one of the biggest recipients of such measures but also a primary sender of them especially through the African Union, this article aims to systematically compare how the sanctioning behaviour of regional and extra-regional actors has impacted on the democratic status of the continent since the 1990s. The empirical analysis reconsiders the comparative advantage of regional actors’ legitimacy to explain the likelihood of democracy sanctions success. It shows that ‘in-group’ democracy sanctions in which regional organizations are involved have bigger chances of success than those imposed by higher-capacity yet less-legitimate extra-regional actors only. However, it also shows in-group legitimacy can erode and that cooperation with such local organizations can help contain global democratic erosion, but hardly achieve democratic deepening, due to soft, face-saving compliance criteria and different understandings democracy and its promotion have across the world. Africa coups democracy regional organizations sanctions
Corda, T. (2023). For things to remain the same, how many things have to change? Elite continuity and change after leadership changes, Democratization, 40(8), 1435-1454. DOI: 10.1080/13510347.2023.2189699 Abs
After leadership changes, how do new leaders recast the composition of their surrounding elites to ensure support and secure their tenure? Using original data on African cabinets, this article contributes to the debate on leaders’ survival with new theoretical inputs and empirical evidence about senior level changes new leaders introduce after assuming office to ensure a longer and more stable tenure. The article concentrates primarily on leaders emerged from an under-theorized and yet frequent type of leadership change, which is neither violent nor electoral, such as after a predecessor’s resignation. Because these leaders lack the authority generally granted, albeit through different means, by electoral and violent takeovers, the article builds on regime cycle frameworks to develop a sequential interpretation of elite management for such hybrid types which is distinct from both violence-born and electoral regimes. The comparative analysis of two recent such cases in Ethiopia and Zimbabwe empirically illustrates how the timing and sequencing of post-change elite management eventually affect leadership stability over time. These findings ultimately reinforce the view that the survival debate needs to dilute its focus on leaders as the organizing principles of regimes, and instead concentrate on wider senior elite coalitions. Africa cabinets elites leadership change reshuffles
Corda, T. (2023). Constraining compliance? Reconsidering the effect of domestic veto players on sanctions success, Defence and Peace Economics, 34(7): 880-892. DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2158288 Abs
What effect do domestic political and institutional constraints such as veto players have on the success of international sanctions which their countries have been subjected to? Do they facilitate or constrain compliance with them? Although in the literature on sanctions success the role of domestic factors has received extensive attention, a typically public-policy concept such as veto players has remained largely underexplored. The potential of its application to the literature on sanctions was only recently uncovered by sanction scholars who found empirical support for the hypothesis that the larger the size of veto players in a country under sanctions, the higher the probability of compliance. Contrary to their findings, this article theorises a negative causal mechanism whereby a growing divergence in the relevant policy-area preferences of veto players prevents the targeted country from complying with sanctions-related demands. An empirical reassessment of this relationship with George Tsebelis’ original policy-area-specific veto player data confirms this negative effect. economic sanctions foreign policy sanctions success political institutions veto players
Corda, T. (2016). Recovering Regional Power: The Islamic Republic under Rouhani’s Presidency, Il Politico: Rivista Italiana di Scienze Politiche, Ed.Rubbettino, LXXXI, 3:44-69. DOI: 10.1400/256134 Abs
Corda, T. (2025). “UN Sanctions in Mali”, in C. Portela, A. Charron, and M. Sossai (eds). Elgar Encyclopedia of International Sanctions, Edward Elgar Publishing (forthcoming) Abs
Africa Mali sanctions peace agreement united nations
Corda, T. (2025). “Not one and the same. A comparison of China’s, Europe’s, and other extra-regional powers’ economic relations with Africa”, in Y. Li, F. Leandro, J.T. da Silva, C. Rodrigues (eds), Palgrave Handbook on China-Europe-Africa Relations: Legacies and the New International Order, Palgrave Macmillan, Chapter 43, ISBN: 978-981-97-5640-7_43. Abs
This chapter offers a comparative analysis of the economic ties between Africa and extra-regional powers in the areas of trade, aid, and investment, with a view to best capture the past and current impact of each relationship, especially those with China and the European Union, as well as spaces for future trilateral cooperation. Since the early 2000s, an ever-growing number of countries in the world has slowly (re-)awakened to Africa’s economic potential. New partnerships have emerged and so has competition. What triggered those partnerships? How did they differ from one another? How can they cooperate with one another? While extant research abounds with analyses of bilateral relations, it conspicuously lacks comparative perspectives as well as considerations on trilateral cooperation. A comparative re-examination of past economic trends, by partner and sector, remains crucial to capture the real extent of the international economic relations between African states and external powers and to anticipate future trajectories. Therefore, looking back at the past two decades with harmonized quantitative data and comparative insights, the chapter sheds light on the actual dimension of China’s economic presence in Africa, the strong and weak points of Africa’s major extra-regional economic partners, and space for future trilateral cooperation. Africa China Europe economic trade aid
Corda, T. (2024). “Democratic Sanctions in Africa. A Reassessment of their Selective and Inconsistent Use across Multiple Senders”, in A. Bultrini, F. Giumelli, C. Portela, and M. Sossai (eds), International Sanctions in Practice: An Interdisciplinary Perspective, Routledge, pp. 161-177. ISBN: 9781032481302. Abs
When it comes to sanctions, Africa plays a major, albeit often overlooked, role. Not only is it a primary target of these measures, but it is al- so a primary sender of them. African regimes have been frequently targeted by unilateral as well as multilateral sanctions even since before the latter became in higher demand after the end of the Cold War. Since the early 2000s, they have also become active senders in their own region, as several African region- al organizations began imposing democratic sanctions against local regimes. While such developments have been largely praised, the recently growing in- consistencies in their application at a time of a return of coups and close au- thoritarianism across the continent demand a reassessment of their use. Look- ing at all the democratic sanctions imposed in Africa by regional and extra- regional actors since the 1990s, this chapter aims to examine the factors that influence their imposition in the region, exposing variations in their selective use across senders, and reflecting on the causes of recent inconsistencies. Africa sanctions coups democracy elections
Cassani, A., Carbone, G., and Corda, T. (2024). “Sub-Saharan Africa”, in A. Croissant and L. Tomini (eds), Routledge Handbook of Autocratization, Routledge, pp. 548-563. DOI: 10.4324/9781003306900-43. Abs
This chapter focuses on autocratization in sub-Saharan Africa ─ the region encompassing the non-Mediterranean states of the African continent─which we further differentiate in West, Central, Eastern, and Southern Africa. We identify term limit manipulation and military takeover as the two main contemporary patterns of autocratization that characterize the region. We examine these modes of autocratization in light of some of the continent’s unresolved issues – e.g., state weakness, conflicts, the politicization of ethnic cleavages, and personal rule – and we highlight the role played by external actors as well as the connections between these processes of political change, development, and public opinion. Africa autocratization coups term limits development
Corda, T. (2021). “Not All Plain Sailing: The Highs and Lows of Iran’s Scramble for the Horn of Africa” (pp. 485-529), in F. Leandro, C. Branco, F. Caba-Maria (eds), The Geopolitics of Iran. Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan. DOI: 10.1007/978-981-16-3564-9_19 Abs
This chapter traces the evolution and significance of the presence of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Horn of Africa. Compared to other areas of Iran’s neighbourhood, Tehran’s power projection in this African subregion has largely remained under-researched. Yet, lately, foreign powers’ renewed interest in the Horn following the latter’s growing geostrategic relevance has contributed to reviving the academic debate related to it. By adopting a complex realist theoretical framework, the aim of this chapter is to explore the reasons why the Horn of Africa is a very coveted spot for many foreign powers, including Iran; which objectives have driven Tehran’s policies in that area; and how its élites have tried to pursue them over the past decades. To do so, after a brief overview of the Horn’s inherent value, the chapter first presents the core dimensions of the strategy Iran has devised to meet its interests there. Then, it moves onto the empirical research proper, consisting in a chronological, in-depth analysis of Iran’s actions in the Horn region, across the four main dimensions which constitute its Horn strategy: political support, military interactions, economic relations, and, to a lesser degree than in other African regions, ideological and soft power penetration. The empirical analysis reveals the complex web of global, regional, and domestic factors behind Iran’s Horn policies and the impossibility to separate the dynamics of Iran’s reach towards the Horn from those of its regional and extra-regional competitors. Africa Horn Iran foreign relations diplomacy
Book reviews and peer-reviewed policy reports
Corda, T. (2024). Le sanzioni in Africa [Sanctions in Africa], Senato della Repubblica, Osservatorio di Politica Internazionale, Serie Mediterraneo Allargato, vol. 6, pp. 109-119.
Corda, T. (2023). Conflitti consensuali. I partiti italiani e gli interventi militari [Review of the book by Valerio Vignoli, Bologna: Il Mulino, 2022. 232p. €23 paperback, €15.99 e-book]. Italian Political Science Review/Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, ahead of print. DOI: 10.1017/ipo.2023.23
Corda, T. (2023). Sanctions, Multilateralism, and the Legacy of Margaret Doxey [Review of the book Multilateral Sanctions Revisited. Lessons Learned from Margaret Doxey, edited by Andrea Charron and Clara Portela]. International Spectator: Italian Journal of International Affairs, 58(4):169-171. DOI: 10.1080/03932729.2023.2225379
Corda, T. (2022). The Reconfiguration of Power Dynamics in the Wider Eastern Africa, Sharq Forum Research Centre, Analysis Paper: 1-25.
Corda, T. (2018). Global Players in Africa. A Focus on Country-Continent Conferences. Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Paper commissioned for the second Italy-Africa Ministerial Conference: 1-29. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3944173
Corda, T., et al. (2018). Cooperazione e competizione degli attori internazionali nel Corno d’Africa, Italian Parliament, Osservatorio di Politica Internazionale del Parlamento Italiano, No. 141: 1-42.
Public engagement
Regarding my non-scientific writings, 30+ policy analyses can be found online, mostly on the websites of ISPI, Treccani, and the Italian Parliament and Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Dissemination of my work also includes interviews and written contributions to national and international media such as Africa Rivista, Formiche, Huffington Post, Radio24, RaiNews/TGR, al-Monitor, Atlantic Council, O’Globo, PressTV, RT Russia Today, This Week in Africa, Yomiuri Shimbun.
